New Research Report: Singapore Freight Transport Report Q1 2010

PR Log (Press Release) – Jan 20, 2010 – According to reports in April, Singapore-based shipping group  Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) was expecting a net loss of US$240mn in Q109, which would come on the back of a net loss of US$149mn in Q408. The declining figures are mainly due to a slowdown in international container-shipping operations. The company is expecting this trend to continue for the rest of 2009. NOL has increased its cost-saving target from US$250mn to US$550mn in order to offset the declining financial figures. NOL anticipates reporting a loss for full-year 2009, and has already reduced capacity on trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes by 20% and 25%, respectively. The company has delayed the delivery of some of the 28 vessels on its orderbook until 2012, and over this period will also remove 22 vessels from its fleet as charters expire.  BMI believes the declining trade volume can be attributed to the deteriorating business environment and cost pressures.  BMI's newly released  Singapore Freight Transport Report concludes that because of global economic cooling, the country's maritime freight volume will rise by an annual average of only 0.5% throughout the 2009-2013 forecast period. Our shipping forecast is based on a number of factors. Our forecast for Singapore's average GDP growth over 2009-2013 now stands at 0.8%, largely because of the sharp contraction this year. NOL and other Singapore-based companies have established themselves as worldclass players. We expect them to be significantly affected, but manage the global downturn reasonably well and position themselves for eventual recovery, despite the growing competitive challenge from Chinese ports. Other transport modes will all be affected by the recession. We are forecasting 0.9% annual growth in air freight over the next five years. Overall, we now expect average annual growth in freight tonnage across all modes to total 0.6% in the 2009-2013 period. With an aggregate score of 63.7 out of a theoretical maximum of 100, Singapore scores well in  BMI's freight ratings for the Asia Pacific region, coming out comfortably above the regional average. Its strong rating stems from low long-term political and economic risk and a strong regulatory environment, as well as a moderate, but healthy rate of infrastructure growth. For the 2009-2013 period, we expect the transport and communications sector to be on a par with the economy as a whole, with both forecast to achieve average annual growth of 0.8%. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$21.7bn in nominal terms by 2013, representing 12.1% of Singapore's GDP

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary

- SWOT Analysis

- Singapore Shipping SWOT

- Singapore Political SWOT

- Singapore Economic SWOT

- Singapore Business Environment SWOT

- Business Environment Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Freight Business Environment Ratings

- Freight Transport Rating

- Singapore Logistics Performance Index (LPI)

- Transport Intensity Index

- Political Risk Summary

- Economic Risk Summary

- Business Environment Risk Summary

- Legal Code/Corruption

- Red Tape

- Labour Force

Table: Labour Force Quality

Table: Singapore’s Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030

- Industry Trends And Developments

- Rail

- Sea

- Industry Forecast Scenario

- Global Oil Products Price Outlook

Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)

Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)

- Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Singapore - Economic Activity, 2006-2014

- Transport Outlook

Table: Singapore’s Freight Transport Economic Indicators, 2006-2014

Table: Singapore Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2006-2014 (mn tonnes, unless otherwise stated)

- Trade Environment

Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)

Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2006-2014 (US$mn)

Table: Singapore’s Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn)

Table: Singapore’s Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)

Table: Singapore’s Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y)

Table: Singapore’s Top Import Sources, 2002-2006 (US$bn)

- Market Overview

- Multi-Modal

- Infrastructure

- Competitive Landscape

- DHL International

Table: DHL’s Financial Performance

- Rail

- Competitive Landscape

- Air

- Competitive Landscape

- Singapore Airlines (SIA)

Table: Singapore Airlines’ Financial Performance

- Water

- Maritime Competitive Landscape

- PSA International

- Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data

- Section 1: Population

Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030

- Section 2: Education And Healthcare

Table: Education, 2000-2004

Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030

- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006

Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)

- BMI Methodology

- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

- Transport Industry

- Sources

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

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